EUR/USD Faces Upbeat US Retail Sales Revisions Ahead of Intensive Retail Season

• EUR/USD bounces after test of 1.0500 on Thursday, the lowest level in over a year.
• Euro recovers on Friday against the US Dollar due to profit-taking after a five-day losing streak.
• Markets turn nervous on the Fed putting the December rate cut in doubt, while the ECB is expected to continue easing, pointing to more downside for the EUR/USD. 

The EUR/USD recovery on Friday looks to be triggered by some profit-taking after the steep decline this week. Economic data from France released earlier in the day showed that inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HCPI), came a touch higher than the preliminary reading for October. However, this may not change the dovish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB), which is set to cut its policy rate in its upcoming policy meeting in December. 

On Thursday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell joined the camp of members within the Fed that deem another rate cut in December, however, it is not granted. Powell pointed out that the US economy and job markets are still doing very well. Meanwhile, several analysts and economists have warned of exponential inflation in the US should President-elect Donald Trump roll out all his fiscal stimulus packages for both US companies and households, alongside slapped tariffs on China and Europe. 

Daily digest market movers: Revisions in US Retail Sales in favor of the Greenback

• US Retail Sales was sharp upside revisions while the actual numbers were roughly in line of expectations. Headline Retail Sales for October came in at 0.4%, beating the 0.3% estimate. The devil in the detail was the upside revision of the previous number to 0.8%, coming from 0.4%.
• Japanese indices closed off rather flat to positive on Friday, while Chinese equities faced weekly losses.
• France’s final reading for the October inflation figures came in a touch higher than expected. The HCPI rose by 1.6% year-over-year (YoY), compared to the 1.5% previously reported and expected. The monthly HCPI came in at 0.3%, as expected.
• There is some good news on the economic data front from China, where Retail Sales surged 4.8% YoY in October, beating the lower expectation of 3.8%.
• All eyes will be on the US Retail Sales data for October on Friday, with the headline number expected to show 0.3% compared to 0.4% in September. As always, markets will move more on the revisions than on the actual number. 

Technical Analysis: Euro is facing an uphill battle

EUR/USD slightly recovers on Friday, with some profit-taking during the European trading session after five consecutive trading days in the red. Pure fundamentally, much upside for EUR/USD is not expected after Fed Chairman Powell dampened hopes for an interest rate cut in December, while recent French inflation figures may not change the ECB’s dovish stance. The rate differential between the two contents will become wider if the Fed does not cut and the ECB does at their next meetings in December, which is oil on the fire in favour of more downside in EUR/USD by the end of the year.   

On the upside, three firm lines in the sand can be seen. First up is the previous 2024 low, registered on April 16 at 1.0601. If that level breaks, the triple bottom from June at 1.0667 will be the next cap upwards. Further up, the 1.0800 round level, which roughly coincides with the green ascending trend line from the low of October 3, 2023, could deliver a harsh rejection before having more downside in EUR/USD. 

Looking for support, the 2023 low at 1.0448 is the next technical candidate. That would mean that once tested, a fresh two-year low is in the cards. Further down, a wider area could open up with 1.0294 as the next level to consider.